Countries
Estonia
Our projection
Updated Saturday 24 Oct · 254 polls since the 2023 election · next update 31 Oct
Changes since
- Isamaa25.1%±4.4+16.9 since 2023
- Kesk19.9%±3.9+4.6 since 2023
- SDE15.5%±3.7+6.2 since 2023
- EKRE12.4%±3.1−3.7 since 2023
- RefG12.2%±3.0−19.0 since 2023
- Parem8.4%±2.6+8.4 since 2023
- E200G1.6%±1.1−11.7 since 2023
- VL0.0%±0.6−2.4 since 2023
- Others1.3%−1.9 since 2023
- Koos1.4%+1.4
- EER1.2%+0.2
- ERK0.8%+0.8
Voting intention
Our weekly projection since the 2023 election, with every poll as a dot behind it
Polls since the 2023 election
254 polls, newest first; each share tinted in its party's color. Click a poll to see it as a picture.
| Pollster | Isamaa | Kesk | SDE | EKRE | Ref | Parem | E200 | VL | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | ||||||||||
22–27 Sep · 1,000 | 27.6 | 19.1 | 14.4 | 14.2 | 12.4 | 7.7 | 1.6 | – | 3 | Isamaa+8.5 |
| August 2026 | ||||||||||
24–29 Aug · 1,000 | 24.1 | 20.4 | 19.1 | 11.8 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 1.5 | – | 1.5 | Isamaa+3.7 |
17–23 Aug · 1,000 | 25.9 | 23.6 | 13.9 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 1.5 | – | 2.1 | Isamaa+2.3 |
9–15 Aug · 1,000 | 22.3 | 21.2 | 14.4 | 13.9 | 13 | 7.9 | 1.6 | – | 3.3 | Isamaa+1.1 |
6–12 Aug · 902 | 24 | 21 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 1 | – | 5 | Isamaa+3.0 |
2–9 Aug · 1,000 | 29.9 | 21.5 | 13.5 | 13.8 | 11.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 2.2 | Isamaa+8.4 |
26 Jul – 2 Aug · 1,000 | 25.3 | 22.7 | 15.4 | 12.2 | 14.1 | 5.8 | 1.4 | – | 1.9 | Isamaa+2.6 |
| July 2026 | ||||||||||
20–26 Jul · 1,000 | 25.1 | 23.1 | 15.4 | 12.9 | 12.1 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 2.8 | Isamaa+2.0 |
13–20 Jul · 1,000 | 25 | 20.3 | 13 | 17.7 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 2 | – | 2.4 | Isamaa+4.7 |
6–16 Jul · 1,554 | 24.4 | 20.3 | 14.3 | 14.2 | 14.1 | 6.8 | 1.9 | – | 3.8 | Isamaa+4.1 |
6–13 Jul · 1,000 | 27.9 | 22.4 | 11.8 | 15 | 10.3 | 7 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 3.9 | Isamaa+5.5 |
29 Jun – 5 Jul · 1,000 | 26.7 | 20.3 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 13.7 | 5.9 | 2 | – | 4.2 | Isamaa+6.4 |
| June 2026 | ||||||||||
16–25 Jun · 906 | 22 | 22 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 3 | – | 6 | Tie |
15–20 Jun · 1,000 | 26.3 | 23 | 14.6 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 3.3 | Isamaa+3.3 |
8–17 Jun · 1,587 | 23.5 | 21.5 | 16.2 | 13.4 | 12 | 8.7 | 2.1 | – | 2.8 | Isamaa+2.0 |
How each pollster is weighted4 companies since the election, by how much we trust them
EmorVery high
Kantar EmorVery high
Turu-uuringute ASHigh
NorstatHigh
From each company's record at past elections and how its recent polls compare with the others'. How this is worked out
Polls: Wikipedia's list of opinion polls for the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election, each linked to the report it comes from (“source” next to the pollster). How the projection is worked out: Methodology.